Geopolitics scenario
This scenario: the internet works fine, but US-based digital services become inaccessible — whether through sanctions, policy changes, trade disputes, or deliberate access restrictions.
| Service | Category | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Google (Search, Drive, Gmail, Maps, Photos) | Everything | Enormous — most people rely on multiple Google products |
| iCloud | Apple storage & sync | Photos, documents, backups inaccessible on Apple devices |
| Microsoft 365 | Productivity | Word, Excel, Teams, OneDrive |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI API | AI tools | Copilots, integrations, apps built on the API |
| GitHub | Code hosting | Repositories, CI/CD pipelines, packages |
| App Stores (Apple / Google) | Software distribution | New installs blocked; existing apps may stop working |
| Cloudflare | Infrastructure | Many sites rely on Cloudflare for DNS, CDN, DDoS protection |
| AWS / Azure / GCP | Cloud infrastructure | Huge portion of the web runs on US clouds |
This already happened
- Russia blocked from many US services after 2022
- TikTok/ByteDance access restrictions debated in multiple countries
- EU–US data transfer agreements invalidated multiple times (Schrems I & II)
- ECFR report: "Get over your X: A European plan to escape American technology"
Response: data first
If you haven't yet, start with Data backup. Download everything from US services before access is cut. Once access is gone, so is your data.
Priority exports:
- Google Photos / iCloud — irreplaceable personal memories
- Gmail / Outlook — years of email history
- Google Drive / OneDrive — documents and files
- GitHub repositories — code you wrote
- Password manager — don't lose access to other accounts
Response: switch services
See Self-hosted alternatives for a full list. Key replacements for the most-used services:
| US Service | European / Self-hosted Alternative |
|---|---|
| Gmail | Nextcloud Mail, Protonmail, Tutanota |
| Google Drive | Nextcloud |
| GitHub | GitLab CE (self-hosted) or Codeberg (EU) |
| Microsoft Office | LibreOffice |
| ChatGPT | Ollama + local LLM (Llama, Mistral) |
| Google Maps | OpenStreetMap / OsmAnd |
| iCloud Photos | Nextcloud Photos |
| Slack | Mattermost (self-hosted) |
| Zoom | Nextcloud Talk |
Infrastructure independence
For developers and sysadmins: avoid building on US cloud infrastructure if European clients or regulatory compliance matter.
- Use a VPS hosted in the Netherlands, Germany, or elsewhere in the EU
- Use European DNS providers
- Consider Hetzner, TransIP, OVHcloud instead of AWS/Azure/GCP
Next steps
- Data backup — export your data from US services now
- Self-hosted alternatives — replace services with European or locally-hosted options
- Offline preparedness — prepare for scenarios where connectivity itself fails