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2026-06-11T12:27:50Z

Initial content from noodpakket.tech

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This scenario: the internet works fine, but US-based digital services become inaccessible — whether through sanctions, policy changes, trade disputes, or deliberate access restrictions.

== What could become unavailable ==

{| class="wikitable"
! Service !! Category !! Impact
|-
| Google (Search, Drive, Gmail, Maps, Photos) || Everything || Enormous — most people rely on multiple Google products
|-
| iCloud || Apple storage & sync || Photos, documents, backups inaccessible on Apple devices
|-
| Microsoft 365 || Productivity || Word, Excel, Teams, OneDrive
|-
| ChatGPT / OpenAI API || AI tools || Copilots, integrations, apps built on the API
|-
| GitHub || Code hosting || Repositories, CI/CD pipelines, packages
|-
| App Stores (Apple / Google) || Software distribution || New installs blocked; existing apps may stop working
|-
| Cloudflare || Infrastructure || Many sites rely on Cloudflare for DNS, CDN, DDoS protection
|-
| AWS / Azure / GCP || Cloud infrastructure || Huge portion of the web runs on US clouds
|}

== This already happened ==

* Russia blocked from many US services after 2022
* TikTok/ByteDance access restrictions debated in multiple countries
* EU–US data transfer agreements invalidated multiple times (Schrems I & II)
* ECFR report: [https://ecfr.eu/publication/get-over-your-x-a-european-plan-to-escape-american-technology/ "Get over your X: A European plan to escape American technology"]

== Response: data first ==

If you haven't yet, start with [[Data backup]]. Download everything from US services before access is cut. Once access is gone, so is your data.

Priority exports:
# Google Photos / iCloud — irreplaceable personal memories
# Gmail / Outlook — years of email history
# Google Drive / OneDrive — documents and files
# GitHub repositories — code you wrote
# Password manager — don't lose access to other accounts

== Response: switch services ==

See [[Self-hosted alternatives]] for a full list. Key replacements for the most-used services:

{| class="wikitable"
! US Service !! European / Self-hosted Alternative
|-
| Gmail || Nextcloud Mail, Protonmail, Tutanota
|-
| Google Drive || Nextcloud
|-
| GitHub || GitLab CE (self-hosted) or Codeberg (EU)
|-
| Microsoft Office || LibreOffice
|-
| ChatGPT || Ollama + local LLM (Llama, Mistral)
|-
| Google Maps || OpenStreetMap / OsmAnd
|-
| iCloud Photos || Nextcloud Photos
|-
| Slack || Mattermost (self-hosted)
|-
| Zoom || Nextcloud Talk
|}

== Infrastructure independence ==

For developers and sysadmins: avoid building on US cloud infrastructure if European clients or regulatory compliance matter.

* Use a VPS hosted in the Netherlands, Germany, or elsewhere in the EU
* Use European DNS providers
* Consider [https://www.hetzner.com Hetzner], [https://www.transip.nl TransIP], [https://www.ovhcloud.com OVHcloud] instead of AWS/Azure/GCP

== Next steps ==
* [[Data backup]] — export your data from US services now
* [[Self-hosted alternatives]] — replace services with European or locally-hosted options
* [[Offline preparedness]] — prepare for scenarios where connectivity itself fails

Geopolitics scenario - Revision history

Admin: Initial content from noodpakket.tech